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中游企業削減50%資本支出

2020-05-25     來源: 中國石化新聞網
石化新聞

中國石化新聞網訊 據今日油價5月23日報道,隨著石油需求的崩潰,??松梨?ExxonMobil)和雪佛龍(Chevron)等大型石油公司,既有上游(石油和天然氣生產)資產,也有煉油資產,石油生產和煉油廠面臨著巨大的財務壓力。然而,這些公司還擁有大量的中游資產,即石油、天然氣以及汽油等成品的運輸和儲存。中游資產通常起到“收費員”的作用,更能抵御大宗商品價格的波動。

在2014-2016年油價崩盤期間,許多中游公司——股份有限公司和主有限合伙公司(MLPs)實際上增加了它們的分銷。但不受波動影響并不意味著他們完全不受價格暴跌的影響。盡管多數中游企業與客戶有長期協議,但隨著協議到期續簽,它們可能會面臨更苛刻的條款。因此,長期價格崩潰最終將影響中游行業的基本面。

如何知道哪些中游企業最有可能陷入財務困境,并可能不得不宣布減產,一種方法是看信用評級。信用評級越低,公司越有可能宣布削減發行,以支撐其財務指標。但資本支出削減的幅度可能也會有所警示。能源基礎設施和MLP市場情報的獨立供應商Alerian最近發表的一份報告對這一問題提供了一些啟發。平均而言,資本支出較最初的指導意見減少了近30%,較2019年減少了45%以上

人們可能會猜測,大幅削減指導計劃支出的公司,是那些面臨削減分銷成本風險最大的公司。事實上,上市公司中削減幅度最大的是DCP Midstream,該公司已經宣布削減50%的分銷。

還有其他一些原因可能會導致中期資本支出的大幅削減??紤]到石油和天然氣行業的不確定性,他們可能會格外保守。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下:

Midstream Companies Slash Capex By 50% After Oil Crash

With the collapse in oil demand, oil producers and refiners have come under intense financial pressure. Not far behind are the integrated supermajors like ExxonMobil and Chevron. These companies have upstream (oil- and gas-producing) assets as well as refining assets, so they are getting hit on both ends. However, they also have substantial midstream assets. Midstream refers to the transport and storage of oil, natural gas, and finished products like gasoline. Midstream assets generally function as toll collectors, and are more insulated from the volatility of commodity prices.

Many midstream companies — corporations and master limited partnerships (MLPs) — actually grew their distributions throughout the 2014-2016 oil price crash.

But being insulated from the volatility doesn’t mean they are completely immune from the impacts of the price collapse. Although most midstream companies have long-term agreements with their customers, they are likely to face tougher terms as their agreements come up for renewal. Thus, a long-term price collapse will eventually impact the fundamentals of the midstream sector.

How do we know which midstream companies are at greatest risk of running into financial difficulty, and potentially having to announce distribution cuts? One way is to look at credit ratings. The lower the credit rating, the more likely a company will announce a distribution cut to shore up its financial metrics.

But the extent of cuts to capital expenditures may also be revealing. A recent note from Alerian, an independent provider of energy infrastructure and MLP market intelligence, sheds some light on this topic.

The note featured the following table, which summarizes midstream capital expenditure (capex) reductions for 2020 for several midstream companies. On average, capex has been reduced nearly 30 percent against initial guidance, and more than 45 percent versus 2019.

One might surmise that the companies making deep cuts to guidance are companies that are at the greatest risk of making distribution cuts. In fact, the deepest cuts listed are by DCP Midstream, which has already announced a 50 percent distribution cut.

There are other reasons a midstream might make deep cuts to capital spending. They may just decide to be extra conservative given the uncertainty hanging over the oil and gas sector.

But as an investor, I would be particularly wary of those companies announcing much deeper cuts than their peers. That is, at a minimum, a red flag about the company’s financials that should be investigated in greater detail.

 
 
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